A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
